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The Indian rupee is again under pressure as rising oil prices have combined with higher U.S. bond yields to spur demand for the dollar. After a strong showing in 2017, when the rupee appreciated 6% against the greenback, the currency has been buffeted by crosswinds that have caused it to weaken by about 4.5% so far this year. With global oil prices continuing a steady climb on the back of tight output controls marshalled by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Brent crude futures have gained almost 12% through 2018. This in turn has bloated India's crude import bill and widened the trade deficit appreciably. While merchandise exports shrank 0.66% in March to $29.11 billion, the monthly bill for the import of goods, including oil, rose 7.2% to $42.8 billion, widening the trade shortfall to $13.69 billion. Foreign institutional and portfolio investors who had pumped in close to $30 billion into Indian debt and equity in 2017 have turned net sellers, with the pace of outflows accelerating sharply this month to more than $2.3 billion. The prospect of higher interest rates in the U.S., with the Federal Reserve having signalled last month that it is on course to raise the policy rate at least two more times in 2018, have now begun to firmly feed into investors' expectations as well. This was best exemplified this week when the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury debt rose above 3% for the first time since January 2014. While the rupee is not alone among BRICS currencies to have depreciated against the dollar this year, with both the Brazilian real and the Russian rouble losing value, it remains particularly vulnerable to mounting oil costs given the economy's extremely high dependence on crude imports to meet energy needs. Saudi Arabia, one of
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