Reference Text
Time Left10:00
The
decision
by
the
Reserve
Bank
of
India's
Monetary
Policy
Committee
to
raise
benchmark
interest
rates
again
by
25
basis
points
is
a
prudent
one.
This
is
the
second
successive
rate
increase
in
as
many
months,
a
response
to
mounting
uncertainties
on
the
inflation
front.
Continuing
volatility
in
crude
oil
prices,
the
recent
softening
notwithstanding,
and
its
vulnerability
to
geopolitical
tensions
and
supply
disruptions
is
one
of
the
main
risks
to
the
inflation
outlook.
Among
the
RBI's
other
concerns
are
volatile
global
financial
markets,
possibilities
of
fiscal
slippage
at
the
Central
and
State
levels,
the
likely
impact
of
the
increase
in
the
minimum
support
price
for
kharif
crops,
and
the
staggered
impact
of
upward
revisions
to
house
rent
allowance
paid
by
State
governments.
Rainfall
has
so
far
been
6%
below
the
long-period
average
and
deficient
over
a
wider
area
than
last
year
more
than
a
fifth
of
the
country's
36
sub-divisions
have
reported
shortfalls.
This
has
resulted
in
a
drop
in
the
total
sown
area
under
kharif.
The
monetary
authority
has
flagged
the
need
to
keep
a
close
watch
on
rain
over
the
remainder
of
the
season,
given
the
risks
regional
imbalances
may
pose
to
paddy
output
and
CPI
inflation.
The
June
round
of
the
RBI's
own
survey
of
household
inflation
expectations
reveals
that
families
see
prices
hardening
even
further
over
both
the
three
and
12-month
horizons.
Domestic
economic
activity
having
strengthened
to
a
point
where
the
output
gap
has
polled
by
the
central
bank
have
reported
higher
input
costs
and
selling
prices
over
the
April
June
quarter.
The
portents
could
not
be
clearer.
With
retail
inflation
having
accelerated
to
5%
in
June,
the
RBI
has
revised
its
projection
for
CPI
inflation
in
the
second
half
of
the
current
fiscal
year
to
4.8%,
from
the
June
forecast
of
4.7%,
and
now
sees
price
gains
accelerating
to
5%
in
the
April
June
quarter
of
2019.
Policymakers
on
the
MPC
have
understandably
spotlighted
the
risks
to
the
domestic
economic
rebound
from
global
developments.
While
rising
trade
protectionism
threatens
to
impact
investment
flows,
disrupt
global
supply
chains
and
hurt
all-round
productivity,
depreciations
in
the
value
of
most
currencies
against
the
strengthening
dollar
have
rippled
through
many
major
advanced
and
emerging
economies,
spurring
inflation
across
these
markets.
The
MPC's
primary
remit
is
to
ensure
that
retail
inflation
stays
firmly
within
a
band
of
2-6%,
and
preferably
anchored
at
4%
over
the
medium
term.
So
there
is
no
room
to
quibble
over
the
committee's
majority
decision
to
raise
borrowing
costs
while
retaining
a
'neutral'
policy
stance.
With
inflation
widely
accepted
as
a
hidden
tax
on
the
poor,
the
containment
of
price
gains
justifiably
ought
to
be
the
raison
d'etre
of
monetary
policy.
The
decision
by